Iran's regime is still intact - the coming days will show if it can hold out

March 1, 2026

Following joint US-Israeli military strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic faces its greatest crisis since the 1979 revolution. The coordinated operation, dubbed "Epic Fury," eliminated Khamenei and several senior military commanders, triggering celebrations in Iranian cities and among diaspora communities while prompting both US and Israeli leaders to encourage Iranians to pursue regime change. Iranian authorities responded by formally confirming Khamenei's death and quickly establishing a temporary three-member governing council to project stability and continuity.

Who is affected

Ali Khamenei (killed)
Senior Iranian military and political leadership, including several IRGC commanders (killed)
Iranian citizens, both domestically and in the diaspora
The Assembly of Experts (88-member clerical body)
The Guardian Council (12-member body)
Mojtaba Khamenei (Khamenei's eldest son, potential successor)
US military personnel at bases in Arab countries
Israeli citizens and military targets
Civilians and infrastructure in Dubai, Kuwait, and other regional locations
Iran's security forces and IRGC
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

What action is being taken

Joint US-Israeli aerial strikes are continuing against Iranian targets
Iranian state television has confirmed Khamenei's death
A temporary council of three men has been formed to assume executive authority
Iranian forces are launching retaliatory attacks against US bases in Arab countries and targets in Israel
Missiles are striking civilian sites in Dubai and a civilian airport in Kuwait
The Assembly of Experts' selection process for a new supreme leader is expected to be underway (with a small committee reviewing potential candidates)

Why it matters

This represents Iran's most precarious moment since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, as the death of the supreme leader—who held ultimate authority for decades—creates both a leadership vacuum and potential constitutional crisis. The elimination of Khamenei alongside key military commanders severely weakens Iran's command structure at a critical moment when the country faces continued military pressure and must navigate a complex succession process. The conflict's expansion to include strikes on civilian targets in neighboring countries like Dubai and Kuwait dramatically widens the geographic scope, raising the stakes for regional stability and potentially drawing additional actors into the confrontation. The outcome will determine whether Iran experiences regime change, as encouraged by US and Israeli leaders, or whether its institutional structures can maintain control—a decision point that could reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics for generations.

What's next

The Assembly of Experts selection process for a new supreme leader could conclude within days
The coming days will reveal whether the IRGC and security forces can remain cohesive
All sides will test their military limits and political resolve in the coming days
The direction of events is expected to become clearer in the coming days as the situation develops
Potential scenarios include: renewed large-scale protests, further regional escalation if militant allied groups join the fight, security force fragmentation, or Iran pressing for a ceasefire

Read full article from source: BBC